6. Volatility Skews

  • Describes that option contracts for the same underlying asset—with different strike prices, but which have the same expiration—will have different implied volatility (IV)
  • Can be seen as a predictor of where IV will be when stock price reaches certain strike price
  • Because of this, most options are initiated by using delta as a criteria for stricke selection, since delta takes into account IV skew information
Smile Skew
  • Volatility smiles tell us that demand is greater for options that are in-the-money or out-of-the-money
  • The volatility smile skew pattern is commonly seen in near-term equity options and options in the forex market
    smile.png
Reverse Skew
  • The reverse skew pattern typically appears for longer term equity options and index options
  • In the reverse skew pattern, the IV for options at the lower strikes are higher than the IV at higher strikes
  • Suggests that in-the-money calls and out-of-the-money puts are more expensive compared to out-of-the-money calls and in-the-money puts
  • The popular explanation for the manifestation of the reverse volatility skew is that investors are generally worried about market crashes and buy puts for protection
  • Another possible explanation is that in-the-money calls have become popular alternatives to outright stock purchases as they offer leverage and hence increased ROI. This leads to greater demands for in-the-money calls and therefore increased IV at the lower strikes
    reverse_skew.png
Forward Skew
  • The IV for options at the lower strikes are lower than the IV at higher strikes.
  • This suggests that out-of-the-money calls and in-the-money puts are in greater demand compared to in-the-money calls and out-of-the-money puts
  • The forward skew pattern is common for options in the commodities market. When supply is tight, businesses would rather pay more to secure supply than to risk supply disruption
    forward_skew.png